What broke solar-only economics
- The federal 30% residential tax credit ended after 31 December 2025. Cash or loan purchases in 2026 get no federal credit.
- Under NEM 3.0, the Net Billing Tariff, excess solar you export to the grid is only worth about 5 to 8 cents per kWh, roughly 75% less than the old full retail rate.
- Evening peak rates stay high, often 35 to 62 cents per kWh depending on your utility and the season.
A solar-only system produces a lot of power in the middle of the day when you do not need it, sells that power for almost nothing, then forces you to buy expensive power from the utility in the evening when everyone is home. Paybacks stretched to 11 to 16 years in many cases.